Episode # 394, "Coming Food Shortages And Price Increases"
Today we are talking about some coming food shortages and price increases.
We've been reading and hearing about more food shortages to come, and we've noticed some of those shortages in the grocery stores.
You've noticed that the prices in the grocery store have risen far greater than the rate of inflation seen in other things.
We've done a lot of research and found some things we believe will become in short supply, and some things that we expect will see significant price increases.
Looking back at some food shortages in the last year, we called the Baby formula shortage before it happened. We called it Feb 2022, and it happened in April/May 2022. We called the Sriracha sauce shortage three months in advance. We called it in Mar 2023, and it started in June '23
Scalpers on E-bay were asking as much as $70 / bottle, with some actually being sold for as much as $35 / bottle.
When the Avian flu hit causing the destruction of millions of chickens, we told you that the price of eggs would rise significantly, (and they did by as much as 500% in places), and that there could be shortages.
Coming shortages will vary by region, and even store to store, but here are our thoughts.
We're not peddling fear, nor are we saying we will have problems finding enough food to eat. We won't.
We ARE saying that there will likely be shortages of SOME foods, and that may vary by region.
We ARE saying that lower supply of some foods WILL drive the price of those foods higher, and in some cases there may be shortages.
We are trying to give you a heads-up with information, and give you our researched best guesses as to what may become in short supply, or may see rising prices.
Beef
We believe that we will see rising prices and shortages of beef, as there are less cattle to go to market.
The Texas drought caused there to be less grass to feed cattle.
Alternative feeds were so expensive that many cattle went to market earlier than anticipated. That
temporarily lowered the price of beef, but we are again seeing much higher beef prices.
Because of higher beef prices, there will be less demand for beef. Reports estimate that on average, Americans will eat 5.6% less beef this year due to shortages.
Fresh produce
-Farmers' fuel and fertilizer costs, have risen drastically in the last two years. Even locally sourced produce may see lower yields, and at a higher cost Droughts and floods have reduced output and higher prices will pass to the consumer.
Oranges
Florida is down in production, with some estimating as much as 50%. California up in production, but not enough to offset Florida's deficit. We expect rising prices, and possibly some shortages in some stores.
Cooking oil
*Oilseed crops
-Soybean, sunflower, peanut, canola
-Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers supplying 70% of the world's oilseed crops.
War reduces supply and export, and is driving up costs.
-India, a leading producer of palm oil, limited their exports in 2022 by 25%
As reported by the Economic Times
-Palm oil, is a a major component in baked goods in the US
Is there any good news? YES!
-Production of chicken, turkey, and pork was up in 2022.
-We are expecting pricing of these to go slightly lower, with no shortages in 2023.
Recommended Actions:
Watch for good buys on beef products. Stock up and freeze it when you find a good price.
Do the same with frozen orange juice concentrate.
Don't wait until you are out of something to resupply.
Cooking oil doesn't store well long term.
Buy two, start looking for resupply when you finish one.
It costs no more, but guards against running out.
For additional reading on possible items that may be victims to food shortage, Click here.
See also our article: Items That Become Scarce
Drop us an email if you know of other items that may become in short supply, or have specific concerns.
Click here.
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